The Global Warming Scenario

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When the stock runs out, publishers face their happiest moments Then pressure mounts on the author to edit the earlier version. Editing means different things to different people. It may mean changing the earlier version. I have found no reason to change the essays placed in the first edition, except the first one. There are two reasons for accepting the challenge to write a new introductory essay. In the first instance, many of my readers found the essay in the first chapter of the first edition a bit difficult to comprehend. The second reason is that I have been more interested in drawing wisdom from what is palpably evident than in debating on the scientific predictions on global warming. Hence the reader needs to be given a body of explicit evidence for the progressive warming of the Earth. This I have tried to put into the new introductory essay.

My position in the other essays has not changed. These were written with conviction and the publisher has done an excellent job in producing the book I am grateful to them. But I felt the need of commenting on how the global community has been reacting to the apprehensions on global warming. So I decided to add a few more essays Possibly I will add a few more if any future edition is planned, since the threat of global warming is likely to intensify in the near future. For the second edition, I have added four new essays.

The readers may notice that there is some bitterness permeating through all the four new essays I confess that the divisive moves taken by a number of superpowers to question the relevance of the Kyoto Protocol have left a bitter feeling. They are refusing to see the changes happening and questioning the validity of the scientific explanations of those changes.

I have often asked myself if we can tell our young students in schools and Universities in simple terms about how global warming will manifest itself. I haven't got the answer as yet, meaning that the answer I have got is not simple. A sample of ideas floating in this regard is presented to show how puzzling the current discoveries are:

The Basic Cause of Global Warming.

We are told that burning of fossil fuel causes emission of CO,, which is a gas capable of storing heat in our atmosphere. And we are told that CO, emissions will rise from 23.9 billion metric tons in 2001 to 27.7 billion tons in 2010 and 37.1 billion tons in 2025. In their long- term forecast released in April 2004 the US Energy Information Administration has given the reasons behind this assessment. The world demand for all forms of energy is expected to grow by 54 per cent over the next two decades, with oil consumption alone jumping by 40 million barrels a day. The highest growth in energy use will be in the developing countries, especially China and India, where buoyant economies will boost demand. Over the past several decades, oil has been the world's foremost source of primary energy consumption, and it is expected to remain in that position. The conclusion is obvious: we shall face the effects of global warming due to release of CO, from combustion of oil.

CO, does not come alone.

One of the pollutants from use of fossil fuel will certainly be CO, as stated in the forecast mentioned above. There will be other types of pollutants as well, such as suspended particulate matter, nitric oxide (NO), sulphur dioxide (SO,), etc.

**Contents and Sample Pages**