Poll Surveys in Media - An Indian Perspective

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Democracy lies at the heart of Indian nationhood and the media is considered to be its integral part. In this light, the present book discusses and provides valuable insight into a very complex and key issue that of the handling of polls-related surveys, and thereby, polls themselves, by the media in India. Naturally, how the poll-surveys are conducted as such, who conducts them at what behest, are they scientifc enough, can they be the sole criteria for making poll-related predictions and analysis and how media should approach them, are some of the major areas taken up for discussion here. Pitching for transparency in conducting and in the use of poll surveys, the book presents an insider's view and an outsider's concern but with a critical perspective. It is likely to be of immense value to the researchers, survey agencies, media professionals, the political class as such, students and teachers of political science and to all concerned citizens interested in this crucial aspect that the transitional times bring up before the Indian democracy.

Dr. N Bhaskara Rao, has a distinguished and pioneering background of scaling up sample surveys in India since early 1970s. Starting as an activist in electoral politics, he studied at two Indian and two USA universities. With continued grassroots presence and as an applied social researcher with several path-breaking evaluation studies to his credit, Dr. Rao's 1967 book on politics of leadership is considered to be a seminal contribution on the subject by an Indian. Founder of more than half a dozen premier research and academic institutions in India, he pioneered 'Social Audit' of public services in India (1991-97) with Studies on Futures being one of his forte ('India 2010' in 1987). Actively involved in the national movement for right to information and electoral and judiciary reforms, his annual studies on corruption are major primary source since 2000. Dr. Rao also edits Transparency Review, a journal devoted to transparency, RTI, corruption, good governance and ICT.

Gallop polls are known globally. George Gallop, who founded Gallop Polls more than five decades ago USA, is viewed as father of public opinion surveys world over, including in the context of the Presidential polls of that country. Since then such specialist agencies which conduct poll eve surveys have proliferated, particularly in countries such as India where an electoral democracy is well established, markets are dominant in the economy and news media have a unique stature. George Gallop and I have one thing in common. Both of us did our Ph.D from the School of Communication, University of Iowa, USA. Of course, I did several years later (1968-70). The reason I refer to this is that a senior researcher and editor with Gallop Polls for years, David Moore, in his books The Opinion Makers (2008) and The Super Pollsters (1995), describes how poll surveys vitiate poll atmosphere and scuttle the same democratic processes for which in fact they came into being. He gives "devastating insider account of their several limitations and misapplications". The revelations in this book have several insights for India. I have been talking and writing about some of these aspects for some years. On November 1, 2008, I referred to critical ones at the Lok Sabha Speaker's Second Roundtable of eminent people in the Parliament House Annexe. The response I received, made me think of this publication on poll surveys. Unlike in the USA, the way poll surveys have proliferated, the way they are being covered by the news media and used by political parties/leaders in India is what I thought should be viewed critically. So that positive potential of surveys is derived in the interest of free and fair polls in India.

A book on Poll Surveys could not have been more timely. Elections 2009¹ are just over but the debate whether Opinion and Exit Polls should have been allowed to be published during the days of polling has not fully subsided. Perhaps it is not likely to be. Some of my best friends in the Media have chided me that a wonderfully conducted election was deprived of its due glamour by not allowing the public catering of poll surveys. I am happy that Dr. N Bhaskara Rao has come out with a well researched and meticulously crafted perspective on a subject that not only holds interest for media and the people but also for politicians and election managers alike.

Public opinion polls, as Nick Moon in his book Opinion Polls: History, Theory and Practice says, are for good or ill, inextricably wedded to the democratic process.' Needless to stress that opinion poll cannot be a random heap of anecdotal information and must follow a methodical and scientific approach. When the opinion polls failed to predict the outcome of 1992 British elections, the critics went on to state that 'opinion polls were a pernicious parasite' and that 'they could corrupt democracy itself by reducing an elections to the level of a horse race."

India is no stranger to poll surveys. With the expansion of reach of the media both electronic and print, such surveys have become a regular feature on the eve of every election during the last two decades. There is apparently no uniform yardstick followed for the surveys.

**Contents and Sample Pages**